Strategic Prioritization of Iran’s Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Capacities under Sanctions: Application of Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) Techniques

Rasoul Afzali; Marjan Badiee Azandahi; Ehsan  Rahnama

Authors

Rasoul Afzali Professor of Political Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran Corresponding author https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8863-044X
Marjan Badiee Azandahi Associate Professor of Political Geography, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran Author https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0712-8835
Ehsan Rahnama Ph.D. Candidate in Political Geography, Alborz Campus, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran Author https://orcid.org/0009-0003-4281-7545

Keywords:

Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, Economic Sanctions, Economic Resilience, SWOT, TOPSIS, Multi-Criteria Decision-Making, Iran

Abstract

This study aimed to identify, evaluate, and strategically prioritize Iran’s geopolitical and geoeconomic capacities under sanctions and to rank the resulting strategic alternatives using expert assessment, SWOT analysis, and the TOPSIS multi-criteria decision-making technique. This applied quantitative study employed a descriptive-survey design. The statistical population consisted of experts in geopolitics, geoeconomics, economics, foreign trade, regional relations, energy, transportation, technology, and policymaking. Using purposive sampling, 25 experts participated in the study. Data were collected through a researcher-developed 80-item questionnaire covering eight dimensions: geopolitical capacities, geoeconomic capacities, economic diplomacy and regional cooperation, alternative financial and trade mechanisms, economic resistance and resilience, emerging technologies and innovation, barriers and challenges, and macro-level strategies and foresight. Responses were rated on a five-point Likert scale. Descriptive statistics, Cronbach’s alpha, the Friedman test, Kendall’s coefficient of concordance, SWOT analysis, and TOPSIS were used for data analysis. The Friedman test showed a statistically significant difference among the rankings of the eight dimensions (χ² = 33.75, df = 7, p = 0.000019). Kendall’s coefficient of concordance was 0.2009, indicating low-to-moderate agreement among experts. In the TOPSIS analysis, the highest-priority strategy was development of regional cooperation through Iran’s crossroads location (0.85), followed by strengthening transit corridors through the Makran coasts and southern ports (0.82), using Iran’s geopolitical position to reduce sanctions vulnerability (0.80), and using economic resilience to counter sanctions-related threats (0.78). The findings indicate that effective utilization of Iran’s geopolitical and geoeconomic capacities under sanctions requires an integrated strategy centered on economic resilience, institutional coordination, transit development, regional cooperation, governance reform, and technological adaptation. Combining domestic capabilities with external opportunities may enhance Iran’s strategic flexibility and reduce vulnerability to sanctions.

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